Warner KE, Mendez D., ‘E-cigarettes: Comparing the Possible Risks of Increasing Smoking Initiation with the Potential Benefits of Increasing Smoking Cessation,’ Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2019 Jan 1;21(1):41-47.
- The research simulated the impacts of vaping on smoking cessation to the year 2070, using a model that tracks the US adult population’s smoking status and smoking-related deaths over time.
Key findings:
-
- The US is predicted to gain almost 3.3 million life-years by 2070.
- Even if smokers lose 10% of the benefit of quitting smoking, the net life-year gain falls to 2.4 million.
- The study tested the model under a wide range of parameters and continually found that vaping had a net positive impact on life-years saved.
- The upside health benefits of vaping exceed the risk that they will potentially increase the number of young smokers.
- Policies to prevent youth uptake should not limit vaping’s potential to help adult smokers to quit.
Related Posts


Public Health implications of vaping in Germany
